Can't say we've not been warned

I have penned a little Haiku concerning our nuclear implosion bomb problem:

Israel, warning
Iran and Russia Smile
Obama, yawning

Or,

Obama talking
Iran secretly plots
Israel glowing

At any rate, Israel feels compelled to warn Washington that it plans on taking out Iranian nukes. While no one should be suddenly surprised when this happens certainly unified world-wide condemnation will follow. Or at least unified world-wide propaganda will lead the charge to condemn the Zionist state. I'm not really sure how normal people would feel about this.

I am not sure why Israel is bothering to warn Washington. They certainly know by now that the Obama administration cannot be counted on for support, don't they?

Wolves in the Throneroom

In review of the recent several weeks activities, let us examine President Obama's emerging Middle East diplomacy objectives.

Initially, let us see what the Obama administration understands about Syria and Iran:

"[The IAEA report] contributes to the growing evidence of clandestine nuclear activities in Syria. We must understand why such [uranium] material - material not previously declared to the IAEA - existed in Syria and this can only happen if Syria provides the cooperation requested."

- George Schulte, the US ambassador to the IAEA, reacting to the IAEA's recent release of findings from the September 2007 Israeli attack which destroyed Syria's North Korean built, Iranian financed al Kibar nuclear reactor. The report revealed that after analyzing soil samples from the bombed installation, its inspectors discovered traces of uranium. The nuclear watchdog agency also noted that the Syrians have blocked UN nuclear inspectors from the site and from three other suspected nuclear sites.

And ...

"Iran has enough uranium for a bomb."

- US Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, commenting on the IAEA's report on Iran

What is Obama's diplomatic posture with respect to Syria and Iran? According to John Kerry, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the Obama administration will be adopting doctrine laid out in the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group report published in December 2006. This report urges the US to coordinate the withdrawal of its forces from Iraq with Iran and Syria - the principal sponsors of both the Shiite and Sunni insurgencies in the country. It recommended that the US purchase Syria's good will by pressuring Israel to surrender the Golan Heights to Damascus and Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem to Hamas. It recommended that the US win Iran's trust by accepting it as a nuclear power and pledging not to overthrow the regime.

"[The starting point for US-Iran discussions is for the US to] state our respect for the Iranian people, renounce regime change as an instrument of US policy, seek opportunities for a range of dialogue across a range of issues, and acknowledge Iran's security concerns and its right to civilian nuclear power."

- former Congressman Lee Hamilton, co-author of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group report, in a February interview with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius

So, the Obama administration is now fully aware of the extent of the Syrian and Iranian nuclear programs. They are not alarmed. They are pursuing a policy of appeasement. The motivation for this? Palestinian statehood?

No, I think something is at play on a much more sinister level. I am intrigued that the Hamilton study urges surrender of Jerusalem to Hamas. What was that saying about Jerusalem? What was so special about Jerusalem in ancient times? Hmm ..

Matthew 24:10-20 (New International Version)

At that time many will turn away from the faith and will betray and hate each other, and many false prophets will appear and deceive many people. Because of the increase of wickedness, the love of most will grow cold, but he who stands firm to the end will be saved. And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in the whole world as a testimony to all nations, and then the end will come.

"So when you see standing in the holy place 'the abomination that causes desolation,' spoken of through the prophet Daniel—let the reader understand— then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. Let no one on the roof of his house go down to take anything out of the house. Let no one in the field go back to get his cloak. How dreadful it will be in those days for pregnant women and nursing mothers! Pray that your flight will not take place in winter or on the Sabbath.

The abomination that causes desolation! Oh, that Jesus was a riot wasn't he?

Clinton saber rattling

Ahem ... Clinton saying the U.S. won't back down from European missile defense? Says we not only need to protect Europe from Iran but from other unnamed threats too.

"Missiles not only with a nuclear warhead but a conventional warhead or some other chemical, biological weapon could very well be in the hands of a regime like Iran's, which we know will use whatever advantage they have to intimidate as far as they think their voice can reach, and who are actively pursuing a missile development program ... We have real potential threats, and obviously Iran is the name we put to them, but it is a kind of stand-in for the range of threats we foresee ..."

- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, March 4, 2009

I am not buying it. There are numerous indications that President Obama wants to warm up to the Arabs in general, and the terrorist-sponsoring ones in particular. This is demonstrated, for example, in his willingness to talk to Hamas and Syria, and even Iran (though strictly speaking, the Iranians are not ethnically Arabs). All of this is part and parcel of his apparent belief that the principal reason that the Arab and Islamic worlds are hostile toward the US is because the US supports Israel.

Ahhh, Barry! Barry! Barry!

And therein lies the danger. Clearly, the Obama government wants to improve relations with the Arab world. If the President sees Israel as the main roadblock to that goal, it is believed that he will either try to manipulate Israel to his own ends, or, if Israel proves intransigent, eventually abandon her. Better start that review of Revelations ...

From the Jerusalem Post:: Iran-Israel Showdown Near

Four recent developments have pushed Israel closer to a confrontation with Iran over its nuclear weapons program — and that could have dire consequences for an already beleaguered U.S. economy, according to best-selling author Edwin Black.

Black, an investigative journalist whose books include, “The Plan: How to Save America When the Oil Stops,” cited the four developments in an Op-Ed piece for the Jerusalem Post:

• Iran successfully launched a satellite into outer space on Feb. 2 and plans three more satellites this year, creating “an easily weaponized space net that worries American military planners.”
  
• The International Atomic Energy Agency admitted in mid-February that it had underestimated Iran’s nuclear stockpile by about one-third, and now confirms that Iran has enough nuclear material to build at least one bomb.
  
• Iran has stepped up its uranium enrichment program with thousands of highly advanced centrifuges, and is now near its goal of 6,000 centrifuges. “American policy-makers are now convinced that Iran, despite all protests and charades, is in a mad dash to create a deliverable nuclear weapon,” Black disclosed.
  
• Benjamin Netanyahu has just become the prime minister-designate of Israel, and he is determined to take action against Iran before it can deliver a nuclear weapon to the nation that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said should be “wiped off the map.”

Also, Russia is in the process of delivering an advanced air defense system that can shoot down Israeli aircraft and drones. But the system will not be fully operational for several months, “creating a narrow window for Israel to act,” Black observes.

The author points out that Iran has repeatedly vowed that if attacked by Israel, it will close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and attack the Saudi Arabian oil facilities at Ras Tanura and Abqaiq.

“Any one of these military options, let alone all three, would immediately shut off 40 percent of all seaborne oil . . . and some 20 percent of America’s daily consumption,” Black writes.

Such an interruption in oil supplies, he warns, would likely push gasoline prices in the U.S. to $20 per gallon.

Recapping previous assessment of Iranian enriched uranium

In news interviews which took place yesterday, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told both CNN and Fox news that he believed Iran had enough fissile material for a bomb. Of course Mullen's spokesman, Capt. John Kirby, said Mullen was referring only to the International Atomic Energy Agency's finding that Iran has processed 2,222 pounds (1,010 kilograms) of low-enriched uranium.

This Washington D.C. based think-tank seems to have a much more optimistic view. They thought that Iran had enough enriched uranium back in December of 2008 for a Hiroshima sized nuclear weapon. They estimated that Iran would need another 2 to 3 months to actually transform that material into a bomb ... Lets see, since then Iran has test fired an ICBM, launching a satellite into orbit ... tick, tick, tick ...

Direct talks with Iran may facilitate, not reduce, threats to U.S. interests

"[T]he State Department recently named Dennis Ross, a seasoned Middle East negotiator, as a "special adviser" to the Gulf region -- a bureaucratic but important prerequisite for direct talks with Iran. Unfortunately, a new envoy and a new diplomatic tone cannot disguise the ongoing substantive collapse of U.S. policy and resolve in the teeth of the Islamic Republic's growing challenge."

So, there are four problems with Iran:

1. Diplomacy is not working
2. Pretending that Hamas, Hezbollah and Syriah are not really Iranian proxies is not working
3. Iraq: A free and stable Iraq threatens Iran, and Obama's policy will insure that Iraq will not be stable, and subsequently will not remain free; therefore, the Iraqi angle is not working
4. Afghanistan: See #3 above. Unstable neighbors on its borders only helps Iran. It behooves Iran to not help stabilize Afghanistan, so expect more Iraqi type insurgency there in the coming months.

Have we elected the village idiot to guide our middle east policies? Only time will tell. One thing is clear: nuclear fallout will leave a fingerprint that will be impossible to gloss over.

"The West's collective failure to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions has persuaded Iran that it faces minimal risks in greater adventurism on other fronts as well. Mr. Obama's discovery of "carrots and sticks," after a half decade of European failure to make that mantra a successful policy, will lead Tehran's mullahs to one inescapable conclusion: They have won the nuclear race, absent imminent regime change or military action."