The Shape of Things to Come

Incoming Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testified this week that the Obama administration will seek direct engagement with Iran, in hopes of convincing Tehran to "abandon its nuclear program and become a constructive regional actor." Iran's leaders had no comment, probably because they were still laughing too hard to speak. Later, with no apparent sense of irony, Clinton said Barack Obama would not agree to engaging with Hamas until it renounces violence, recognizes Israel, and respects previous agreements between Israelis and Palestinians -- in short, until it changes precisely the behaviors exhibited by Iran, only on a smaller scale and without a nuclear program. We can only suppose that's what Leftists mean by "nuance."

President-elect Obama's lapdogs in the press described the new approach as a "sharp contrast to President Bush's policy of refusing to deal with countries that did not first meet conditions set by the United States." For the record, the United States handed over all direct negotiation with Iran to the Europeans in 2003, at the behest of those wise liberal graybeards that knew better. Since that time, there has been only one "demand" placed on Iran: that it stop enriching uranium in order for diplomacy to move ahead. In the last year, the Europeans abandoned even that request. The most recent request by the G-8 was merely that Iran stop installing new centrifuges at Natanz, never mind what Iran was doing with its 5,000 operational centrifuges. Iran's answer to the G-8 was the same as it had been to the P-5+1 in 2007 and the EU-3 in 2005: No.

I am afraid that Iran is merely trying to run out the clock on the Bush administration, hanging on for a more gullible and naive American leader with whom to dance. Barack Obama has given the clearest possible indication that he is that leader, one who believes that the charisma that made the Germans swoon and a thrill go up Chris Matthews' leg can also make Iran's lunatic regime see the error in its ways and become a "constructive regional actor."

My bet is on Tel-Aviv. This is where the first mushroom cloud rises. A close second would be New York City. By the time this happens we will be too far down the road to effectively change course. It is simply days away.